Tensions between the EU and Turkey are rising. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s threat to open Turkey’s borders, makes it possible for, as he puts it, ‘millions of refugees’ to enter Europe. The contentious EU-Turkey migration deal is therefore on the verge of collapse. After an emergency meeting last Friday, EU governments announced that they will not comply with Turkey’s demands. Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis warns that the ‘deal is dead’. It is unclear what will happen next and how refugees will be affected by these developments.
Turkey currently hosts more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees. This is a direct result of the 2016 migration agreement with the EU. According to this agreement, Turkey would take in the migrants and refugees who have been turned away at European borders, and would keep the land and sea routes between Turkey and the EU closed. For every Syrian relocated to Turkey, another Syrian would be offered resettlement in the EU. In exchange, the EU promised to pay Turkey 6 billion euros (to facilitate integration and settlement in Turkey), lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens, and work on a better customs union.
Reportedly, the reason for Turkey’s change of heart was an incident in the Northern Syrian region Idlib, where 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an airstrike. Erdoğan accused the EU of being too passive in regard to the escalating conflict in the North and now demands more support for Turkey’s military operations in Syria. Furthermore, the Turkish president stated that the country cannot cope with new refugee flows, and therefore asked for more financial support as well. Erdoğan has, in turn, been accused of trying to blackmail the EU, using refugees as bargaining chip to reach his goal.
What will happen next?
While political leaders fight over (broken) agreements, refugees face uncertainty. After Erdoğan’s announcement, many people travelled to the border in hopes of going to Greece. On the Greek side of the border, they faced a heavily armed border force using tear gas and rubber bullets to deter them away. European commission president Ursula von der Leyen complimented Greece for its prompt response. She even went as far as to thank Greece for being a ‘shield’, deterring irregular migrants from European borders. Amnesty International remarks that this rhetoric is rather misleading; should Europe really be shielded from people who fled a dangerous situation, looking for safety?
The developments described above compound the already tense situation in Greece. Earlier this month, the Greek island Lesbos made the news because both refugees and humanitarians were met with increased hostility. It seems as though it is a matter of time before Greece will not be able to handle the situation anymore. This will most likely further worsen the living conditions of migrants and refugees on the Greek islands.
The question is what is going to happen now that the EU has announced that it will not give in to Turkey? Up until now, EU member states have been very divided over the topic of migration. The EU-Turkey deal was in part justified with the argument that the EU needed more time to create a unified migration policy. However, while the agreement has been in place for several years now, there does not seem to be great progress in this regard. According to the Migration Policy Institute Europe, the EU has primarily been investing in migration deals with non-European countries, rather than in EU-wide schemes.
As tensions are rising, and more people are expected to enter into Europe, this type of policy may not work in the long run. More importantly, it is not in the best interest of refugees. In light of the recent events, Amnesty International called upon the EU to stop violence at borders, respect international law and provide access to fair asylum procedures instead of trying to evade responsibility. It is, however, very questionable whether this will happen, as the way the EU handles this situation suggests reluctance to change the status quo.
Written by Isadora Dullaert. March, 2020.
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