The Northern Triangle refers to the countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, located in Central America. While mass migration from all three is not a new phenomenon, global attention on the region has increased since 2014 after an upswing in numbers. Around 265,000 people have left the region on average each year since then, but it is estimated that this number almost doubled in 2019. Some migrants seek asylum in other Latin American countries and Europe, but the majority travel through Mexico to attempt the US border. Most migrants attempt to seek asylum instead of entering undocumented, but as the US laws around obtaining asylum tighten, it is likely that a greater proportion will attempt to enter the US illegally.
The United Nations High Commissioner for refugees has called the situation in the northern triangle and the consequential migration a humanitarian crisis. The US receives the largest proportion of northern triangle migrants and has historically allocated substantial aid for projects in the region. Therefore, the US administrations attitude and policy directed towards the situation and the migrants arriving at their border is going to play a key role in how the crisis plays out in the coming decades.
The reasons why people are fleeing are mixed. Push factors include poverty, lack of economic opportunity, high corruption, high rates of violence and a strong presence of criminal gangs. Pull factors include better economic opportunities abroad and family reunification.
The Northern Triangle is the poorest region in the Western Hemisphere, with all three countries in the bottom 20% of Latin American nations for gross domestic product per capita (GDP). During the 1980s and 1990s, the Northern Triangle countries implemented widespread neoliberal reforms and made attempts to diversify their mostly agrarian economies, but economic benefits have been highly unequal, confined in the most part to a small elite. The living conditions for most of the populations have generally remained poor and their economic situations precarious. The US Agency for International Aid (USAID) has stated that in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, 70% live below the poverty line, with 26% living in absolute poverty. El Salvador has the lowest poverty rate in the Northern Triangle according to World Bank data but is still high at 29.2%.
The Northern Triangle countries all have young populations, with around 50% under the age of 25. This presents a huge economic opportunity in the coming years as the labour force expands, but so far, job opportunities have struggled to keep up with demand. This is likely to encourage ever higher numbers to look abroad for work.
Also, violence, both domestic and societal, is ever present within the region. Drugs trafficking is rife and numerous transnational armed gangs and drug cartels hold large power within the region. There have been reports of people murdered after refusing to join such organisations, illustrating how dangerous and violent it can be. All three countries have some of the highest homicide rates in the world, as well as some of the highest rates of domestic violence. A report on the Global Burden of Armed Conflict found that El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala had the highest average annual female homicide rates in the world between 2012 and 2017. The high incidence of violence is one of the strongest reasons for outwards migration from the region, with 39% of those fleeing to the Mexico-US border stating it as their primary motivation for leaving. Government attempts to crack down on such violence have often had the opposite effect by strengthening criminal gangs instead and the severe lack of laws and resources available does little to discourage and prevent domestic violence.
The governments of all three Northern Triangle countries have long histories of authoritarian rule, with the transition to democracy occurring relatively recently following regional civil wars between 1970-90. This transition has proved challenging and as a result, governance of the region is often unstable and weak. With some of the lowest tax collections in Latin America, state institutions are underfunded and thus have limited ability to protect and support citizens. This has enabled the criminal gangs and traffickers to expand in number, presence and influence. Polls have revealed low levels of citizen faith in their governments and state institutions across the Northern Triangle.
Despite this, a large amount of aid from around the world is channeled into the Northern Triangle with much of it going towards programs aimed to tackle violence and corruption, poverty and provide more stable economic opportunities. Such programs aim to stem the migration through resolving the route issues that cause it. The US has over the years donated a huge sum of aid, both individually and through partnerships with states, NGOs and businesses. Under the US Strategy for Engagement in Central America over $2.6 billion between the financial year 2016 and mid-2019 was allocated to the region to be spent on tackling the root causes of migration. A further $100 million has been allocated to Mexico between financial year 2014 and mid-2019 in order to help them control migration through their territory and help to keep migrants healthy and safe.
However, since Trump took office, there have been suggestions that the US approach towards the Northern Triangle is becoming increasingly unhumanitarian and troubling in its treatment of migrants. In June 2019 the Trump administration slashed and froze the US’s aid allocation to the Northern Triangle after criticizing all three countries for failing to prevent migration outwards to the US. Around $400 million that had previously been approved for the region was instead allocated elsewhere, with only programs focusing on security and justice still receiving limited funding. An extra $117 million in aid was frozen indefinitely. The effects of this shocking policy change were dramatic. Many NGOs were forced to scale back or even pull out of previously approved projects, with funding cups leaving gaping holes in service provisions throughout the region. This is ultimately short-sighted and counterproductive, as by failing to address the root causes of why people are choosing to migrate, US policy is instead likely to encourage an upswing in numbers arriving at their borders. While aid has now been partly reinstated, the consequences of the freeze continue, with many projects having already closed and progress having been lost.
The Trump administrations hard line on immigration and their prioritization of border security is further revealed by their 2018 implementation of a zero-tolerance policy. This sought to criminally prosecute all adults attempting to enter the US illegally, including asylum seekers and those travelling with children. This led to the separation of numerous families, often involving toddlers, with the children being housed in poor conditions in makeshift facilities. While the policy was eventually withdrawn following huge public outcry, family separations continue to this day.
Early in 2019 the Trump administration stepped up the US military presence on the Mexico-US border and have allocated funding to build border barriers. The focus is far more on increasing border security and preventing immigration into the US rather than on ensuring the health and safety of the numerous Northern Triangle migrants, many of whom are fleeing for their lives. The renegotiation of agreements with the Northern Triangle countries has expanded the US’s right to send many asylum seekers arriving at the border back to the regions from which they have fled.
The Trump administration is effectively creating a situation making it virtually impossible for those arriving at the US border to enter, even in cases where they have a valid claim to asylum creating a deeply heart-breaking reality for some migrants.
The Trump administration has shown contempt towards the people of the Northern Triangle at a time of great humanitarian crisis. They have made it clear that their priorities are tight border controls, prevention of immigration and that they are unconcerned about the wellbeing and safety of those remaining in and fleeing from the region. By helping address the root causes of the migration crisis they could help stem the flow of migrants towards their borders, a win-win for all involved.
Instead, it’s probable that the current US policy choices to take may only intensify and worsen the situation and facilitate the continued suffering of the people living in the Northern Triangle. We can only hope that the Trump administration decides to take a new, more humane approach in the future.
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by Meg Jones
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